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Freitag, 4. März 2016

Eisenerzpreis markiert neues Jahreshoch

Der wichtigste Gewinnbringer für die großen Minenkonzerne steht YTD bereits 20% im Plus:

Iron ore price jumps to new 2016 high

The rally in the price of iron ore continued on Thursday with the Northern China benchmark import price advancing to a four-and-a-half month high.

The steelmaking raw material exchanged hands for $51.70 a tonne on Thursday according to data supplied by The Steel Index. Iron ore is now up 20.5% since the start of the year, surprising many in the industry who have consistently been calling it lower
..

Gold markiert neues 13-Monatshoch

Zum ersten Mal in den letzten Jahren steigt der Goldpreis um 20% von seinen Verlaufstiefständen an..

Quelle: zerohedge.com



Donnerstag, 3. März 2016

Gold: Kanada verkauft alle Reserven

Nicht wirklich ein smarter Move..

It's Official: Canada Has Sold All Of Its Gold Reserves

Tyler Durden's picture




One month ago, when looking at the latest Canadian official international reserves, we noticed something strange: Canada had sold nearly half of its gold reserves in one month. According to the February data, total Canadian gold reserves stood at 1.7 tonnes. That was just 0.1 per cent of the country’s total reserves, which also include foreign currency deposits and bonds.  
As we noted, the decision to sell came from Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s office. 
“Canada’s gold reserves belong to the Government of Canada, and are held under the name of the Minister of Finance,” explained a spokesperson for the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. “Decisions relative to gold holdings are taken by the Minister of Finance.”
Reached by Global News on Wednesday evening, a spokesperson for the finance department said the sale “was done in the normal course of business for the government. The decision to sell the gold was not tied to a specific gold price, and sales are being conducted over a long period and in a controlled manner.” 
This latest sell-off is indeed part of a much longer-term pattern of moving away from gold as a government-held asset. According to economist Ian Lee of the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, Ottawa has no real reason to keep its gold reserves other than adhering to tradition.
"Under the old system, (gold) backed up currencies,” Lee explained. “The U.S. dollar was tied to gold. One ounce was worth US$35. Then in 1971, for lots of reasons I won’t get into, Richard Nixon took the United States off the gold standard.” 
Gold and dollars were interchangeable until that point, he said, but in the modern financial world, the metal is no longer considered a form of currency.  “It is a precious metal, like silver … they can be sold like any asset.”
The amount of gold the Canadian government holds has therefore been falling steadily since the mid-1960s, when over 1,000 tonnes were kept tucked away. Half of those reserves were sold by 1985, and then almost all the rest were sold through the 1990s up to 2002.
By last year, Canada’s reserves were down to just three tonnes, and the latest sales have now halved that. At the current market rate, the value of 1.7 tonnes of gold comes in at just under CAD$100 million, barely a drop in the bucket when you consider the broader scope of federal finances. 
According to Lee, there may soon come a time when Canada’s gold reserves are entirely a thing of the past. There are better assets to focus on, he argued, calling the government’s decision to dump gold “wise and astute.”
* * * 
Lee was right, because fast forward one month when earlier today Canada's Department of Finance released its latest official international reserves and as of this moment it's official - Canada has fully "broken away with tradition" and has exactly zero gold left.
This is what it said: 
The Government of Canada sold 21,851 ounces of gold coins for settlement in February. On February 29, gold holdings stood at 77 ounces. The valuation is based on the February 29, 2016, London p.m. fix of US$1,234.90 per ounce. 
And now, Canada can focus on buying "better assets." As to whether "the government’s decision to dump gold was wise and astute", we'll check back on that at some point in the near future.

4.84

Gold: ETF-Bestände auf dem höchsten Stand seit September 2014

Hierzu ein interessanter Chart-Vergleich zwischen den ETF-Beständen und dem Goldpreis:

Quelle: bloomberg.com

Big Picture, Performance: Rohstoffe unter ihren Allzeithochständen

Spannende Performance-Übersicht:

Quelle: Pension Partners

Gold vs. Silber: Ratio verweilt nahe Allzeithochständen

Nach wie vor bleibt Gold das Maß der Dinge..

Quelle: stockcharts.com


Quelle: stockcharts.com


Quelle: stockcharts.com

USA: Öl- und Petroleum-Exporte markieren neues Rekordhoch

Befeuert vom Fracking-Hype stiegen die amerikanischen Petroleum-Exporte in den letzen Jahren massiv an:

Quelle: EIA

Amerikanische Bevölkerung: Große Veränderung der Lebensumstände unter Obama

Die Belastungsfaktoren nehmen weiter erheblich zu..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Goldaktien: Februar 2016 markiert den besten Monat seit 1998

Solche gewaltigen Monatskerzen wie bspw. im HUI sind wahrlich selten..

Quelle: stockcharts.com


Quelle: stockcharts.com


Quelle: stockcharts.com

Dienstag, 1. März 2016

Kupfer-Projektentwickler Excelsior Mining bricht erfolgreich aus

Hierzu ein aktueller Bericht von InvestorIntel:

Excelsior Mining – Copper Star Rising?

For the last year the copper market has gone from bad to worse and now seems to be in slight recovery mode. This has undoubtedly been helped by a panicked slew of closure notices on mines that were issued last year when even Glencore’s survival was in doubt..

Link: http://investorintel.com/technology-metals-intel/excelsior-mining-copper-star-rising/#sthash.vo3HKDNR.dpuf


Quelle: stockcharts.com


Quelle: stockcharts.com

BMO Capital Markets' 25th Global Metals & Mining Conference in Florida

BMO's Jubiläumsveranstaltung in Florida ist ein voller Erfolg und definitiv eine der besten Rohstoff-Konferenzen, an der ich bis dato teilnehmen konnte.

LinkBMO Capital Markets' 25th Global Metals & Mining Conference in Florida

Quelle: Own Data (c) JRB


Quelle: Own Data (c) JRB


Quelle: Own Data (c) JRB

Interview mit dem neuen CEO von Goldcorp

Hier ein hörenswertes Interview mit David Garofalo auf der 25th Global Metals & Mining Conference von BMO:

Quelle: BMO



Globale Anlageklassen, YTD-Performance: Gold und Silber auf den Spitzenplätzen

Das gelbe Metall legt in 2016 ein eindrucksvolles Comeback hin..

Quelle: Deutsche Bank

Japan verkauft 10-jährige Anleihe zum ersten Mal mit negativer Rendite

From ZIRP to NIRP..

Quelle: zerohedge.com

Gold-Newsletter Update: The Midas Touch Consulting Report by Florian Grummes - 1st of March 2016

Florian Grummes mit seinem jüngsten, lesenswerten Update siehe unten.

Empfehlung: Hier können Sie sich für den informativen Gold-Newsletter registrieren.

1st of March 2016

During the last two weeks gold has been quite volatile moving between $1,191 and $1,252 without being able to establish a clear trend. So far the consolidation below the recent top at $1,263 has a bullish taste but gold needs to break out above $1,250 very soon otherwise we might be right in front of a multi-week correction. Failing at $1,248 - $1,252 increases the odds for the bears dramatically.
At the same time the stock markets are recovering as expected. I would not be surprised to see a large bear market rally until summer.
Finally Bitcoin is acting bullish and continues to move within its triangle pattern. With my recommendation to buy Bitcoins below $380 you should be up at least 14.7% already. Don't chase it here. We should get one more chance to buy a dip before the breakout above $500 will happen.
Interview with Commodity-TV on February 22nd
Interview with Commodity-TV on February 22nd 
Florian Grummes
For now I will continue to write a bi-weekly free update focusing on Gold and Bitcoin. If you like my work I´d be very grateful if you could support me with a donation. Any amount is welcome. I will honor your trust in my work.

To your success,
Donate via Paypal
Donate Bitcoins: 1AxZLhPaFNJTysAqpstUbZPgva3H1wr1Ub
1. Update on Bitcoin

Bitcoin within a multi-month bullish triangle consolidation

Since my last analysis the price for one Bitcoin is up 9,5%. It looks like the suspected triangle formation is playing out. This means Bitcoin should advance towards $480 - $500 where another pullback is very likely.
Overall the price should not fall below $380 anymore otherwise the uptrend-line would be broken.


Action to take: Hold your Bitcoins and let your winnings run. Don´t buy here.
Stopp Loss: Increase your stopp to $330
Profit Target: $800
Timeframe 6 -18 months
Risk($80) / Reward($430) = 1 : 5.4 (very good ratio!!)
Position Sizing: Don´t risk more than 1% of your equity.
2. Update on the Midas Touch Gold Model

Midas Touch Gold Model on a Buy Signal since February 24th

The model went to neutral mode on February 16th but quickly flipped back to a Bull signal.

Compared to last week we have the following changes:

Gold Volatility CBOE Index
Gold in Indian Rupee
Gold in Chinese Yuan
US-Dollar Daily Chart 

New sell signals are coming from:
Gold CoT-Report
US-Dollar Daily Chart


The negative seasonal outlook as well as the high commercial net short position are delivering sell signals while the market technically speaking is still in a very bullish mode. The trend is your friend until it breaks. Moving above $1,255 will flip the "Gold in USD Daily Chart" to a buy signal. Overall a clear bullish signal.
4. Update on Gold daily

Gold within bullish consolidation

Gold is acting very bullish. Any pullback is being bought and despite a stronger US-Dollar gold is holding up very well. It seems like the ETF demand is putting the physical market under pressure. The ETF liquidation which had a huge impact on the gold market during the last four years is being reversed now. Everybody wants to have some insurance in his portfolio. The GLD Gold Trust holdings have increased by over 51 tones in just the last two weeks. 
The professional hedgers and the paper speculators have not been able to keep the prices down while the commercial short position has risen to its highest level since last october making the market more and more susceptible. Yet the price action is not delivering any bearish signal so far but many traders obviously doubting gold´s recent strength and keep on shorting the market. The surprise still favors the upside. The next price target would be $1,310 which would mean a breakout above the three year downtrend channel.
At the same time all this bullish action during the last two weeks has been happening clearly below the recent top at $1,262. The longer the bulls are not able to push gold sustainably above $1,240 - $1,250 the more vulnerable the market will become. A decision is imminent and likely to happen this week.
I have expressed my bearish concerns in the last two weeks but it seems like I have been a bit early. Rather the market has been going sideways. Right now I prefer a neutral standpoint and will let the market tell me which way to go. Although it´s tempting to short gold there is no setup that justifies such a countertrend trade at the moment.

Action to take: Nothing. Stay at the sidelines but plan to buy with both hands once Gold is pulling back towards its 200MA ($1,131).
Investors should continue to buy with both hands if Gold moves below $1,140 again until you have at least 10% of your net-worth in physical Gold and Silver.
5. Portfolio & Watchlist

Portfolio:

  • We bought Bitcoin at $372. New stopp at $330. Profit target $800. Plan to hold for a couple of months.
  • Buy Gold at $1.140 with a stopp at $1.100. Mostly likely we will have to wait until spring for this trade to become possible.
  • Buy GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) at and below $15.45 with a stopp at $14.00
  • Buy GDXJ (Market Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF) at and below $21.15 with a stopp at $19.00
 

Watchlist:

  • DRD Gold (DRD) 
  • Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR.TO) 
  • McEwen Mining (MUX.TO) 
  • MAG Silver Corp. (MAG.TO) 
  • United States Oil Fund (USO) 
  • Agriculture ETF (DBA)
  • iPath Bloomberg Grains Total Return Fund (JJG) 
 

Track-Record:

  • We got stopped out of our gold short position on January 4th at $1,083 for an outstanding gain of $97/contract or 8.2% (=8.08R).
6. Long-term personal beliefs

Long-term personal beliefs (my bias)

  • Officially Gold is still in a bear market but the big picture has massively improved and the lows are very likely in. If Gold can take out $1,307 we finally have a new series of higher highs. If this bear is over a new bull-market should push Gold towards $1,500 within 1-3 years.
  • Long-term price target DowJones/Gold-Ratio remains around 1:1.
  • Long-term price target Gold/Silver-Ratio remains around 10:1 (for every ounce of gold there are 9 ounces of silver mined, historically the ratio was at 15:1 during the roman empire).
  • Long-term price target for Gold remains at US$5,000 to US$8,900 per ounce within the next 5-10 years (depending on how much money will be printed..).
  • Fundamentally, as soon as the current bear market is over Gold should start the final 3rd phase of this long-term secular bull market. 1st stage saw the miners closing their hedge books, the 2nd stage continuously presented us news about institutions and central banks buying or repatriating gold. The coming 3rd and finally parabolic stage will end in the distribution to small inexperienced new traders & investors who will be subject to blind greed and frenzied panic. 
  • Bitcoin could become the "new money" for the digital 21st century. It is free market money but surely politicians and central bankers will thrive to regulate it soon.
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Montag, 29. Februar 2016

Goldminen: Größte Gewinn-Rally seit Herbst 2008

Der Februar 2016 ist für die Goldminen (GDX, HUI, XAU, GDXJ) der stärkste Monat seit vielen Jahren..

Quelle: stockcharts.com


Quelle: stockcharts.com


Quelle: stockcharts.com

Australien: Gold-Produktion steigt auf 12-Jahreshoch

Während bspw. die Gold-Produktion in den USA seit Jahren fällt, steigt sie in Australien weiter an. Die in Down Under aktiven Gold-Produzenten profitieren vor allem vom schwachen australischen Dollar..

Australia's gold output climbs to 12-year high

Newmont's Boddington mine was Australia’s top producer in 2015, yielding 794,000 ounces..

Sonntag, 28. Februar 2016

USA, Kapitalmarkt: Bilanzkosmetik erreicht neuen Rekordstand

Noch nie waren die Verzerrungen bei den Earnings in den US-Bilanzen größer..

Quelle: WSJ.com


Gold: Beste Februar-Performance aller Zeiten

Die starke YTD-Performance könnte eine nachhaltige Wende beim Goldpreis einläuten..

Quelle: bloomberg.com


Regenerative Energien: Private Equity Investitionen auf 10-Jahrestief

Nach dem Mega-Boom erfolgt ein langer und scharfer Einbruch:

Quelle: bloomberg.com